Moody’s Revises Nigeria’s Credit Outlook to Positive, Affirms B3 Rating

Moody’s Ratings has revised Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive, while affirming the country’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings at B3, citing stronger external buffers and sustained macroeconomic reforms.
The Federal Ministry of Finance announced the development in a statement on Saturday, saying Moody’s decision, announced on August 28, reflected the impact of the Federal Government’s macroeconomic and fiscal reform agenda over the past three years.
According to the ministry, the improved outlook was driven by Nigeria’s stronger external position, supported by sizeable current account surpluses, rising foreign exchange reserves, improved functioning of the foreign exchange market and more effective monetary policy transmission.
Moody’s projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would widen to about 6.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2026, while the country’s gross external reserves rose to $53.30 billion as of August 26, 2026, according to Central Bank of Nigeria data.
The rating agency also noted stronger economic performance, with real GDP growth reaching 4 per cent in 2025, compared with earlier projections of about 3 per cent. Similar growth is expected through 2027, supported by increased non-oil sector activity and rising oil production.
Nigeria’s headline inflation also eased to 15.4 per cent in July 2026, down from 25.3 per cent a year earlier, the ministry said.
The development follows FTSE Russell’s confirmation of Nigeria’s reclassification from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status on August 27. It also comes after S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria to B from B- in May 2026, while Fitch affirmed the country’s rating at B with a stable outlook.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, described Moody’s positive outlook as an important validation of the government’s reform programme.
“Moody’s positive outlook is an important external validation of the difficult but necessary reforms this administration has implemented, from removing a costly and inequitable fuel subsidy to unifying the exchange rate, and the landmark tax reforms,” Oyedele said.
He said the reforms were helping to restore macroeconomic stability through stronger reserves, a resilient external position, moderating inflation and more credible policy transmission.
Oyedele said the government’s medium-term ambition was to place Nigeria on the path towards investment-grade status.
“That will require us to sustain the external gains Moody’s has recognised, while making faster progress on domestic revenue mobilisation, spending efficiency, and debt affordability,” he said.
The ministry said the Federal Government would continue to prioritise domestic revenue mobilisation, foreign exchange market transparency, improved debt management, fiscal discipline and structural reforms aimed at supporting non-oil growth and diversifying government revenue.
It added that Moody’s indicated that a future rating upgrade could follow if Nigeria sustains improvements in its external position and successfully increases government revenue through ongoing reforms.