Fitch Revises Nigeria’s Economic Outlook To Positive, Affirms ‘B’ Rating

The global credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has revised Nigeria’s economic outlook from stable to positive while affirming the country’s long-term credit rating at ‘B’, citing ongoing economic reforms, stronger foreign exchange reserves and declining inflation.

The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a press release issued on Saturday, October 10, 2026, noting that the decision reflects growing confidence in the sustainability of Nigeria’s economic reform programme.

According to the ministry, Fitch attributed the improved outlook to greater flexibility in the naira, disinflation and a faster-than-expected increase in foreign exchange reserves.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves stood at $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion in mid-April 2024. The increase was supported by stronger portfolio inflows, higher export receipts, remittances and improved formalisation of foreign exchange transactions.

Fitch also projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would reach 6.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026.

The agency forecast real GDP growth of 4.3 percent in 2026, compared with four percent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, driven largely by non-oil activities.

On inflation, Fitch projected that the average rate would decline to 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half the level recorded in 2024.

The report also noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production had met the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while increased domestic refining was helping to reduce refined petroleum product imports and foreign exchange demand.

The rating agency further projected that Nigeria’s general government debt would average 32 percent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the median of 56 percent for countries with a ‘B’ rating.

It also recognised improvements in the domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many Nigerian banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 percent.

The Federal Ministry of Finance said Fitch’s decision followed positive rating actions by other major international agencies in 2026.

According to the ministry, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook on the country to positive in August. Nigeria was also returned to Frontier Market status by FTSE Russell, effective September 21, 2026.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the positive outlook recognised reforms implemented under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidy, exchange rate unification and tax reforms.

He added that the government remained committed to reforms aimed at reducing the cost of capital, attracting private investment and creating jobs.

However, the ministry acknowledged that challenges remained, including inflation above the levels of peer countries, low government revenue relative to the size of the economy and high interest payments.

It said the government would continue to focus on sustaining economic reforms, improving tax administration, strengthening public financial management, diversifying the economy and supporting small businesses.

The ministry added that sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves and increased non-oil revenue mobilisation would remain critical to improving Nigeria’s credit profile and achieving long-term economic growth.